Predicting The Big Game

Football, Gambling, Las Vegas, Milwaukee Braves, My-Sugar-Na, NFL, Super Bowl

(Side note; I started this blog in March, 2007.  Unfortunately, the fine folks at JSOnline changed servers so my archive only goes back to August, 2007... well, except from this snapshot taken by the Internet Archive Wayback Machine from May, 2007.  That's disappointing, because I had wanted to refer to one of my very first posts from March 7, 2007 regarding the NFL not allowing anyone to commercually use the term Super Bowl, and how - at the time - they were trying to clamp down on companies using The Big Game as well.  I did find, however, a follow-up post on that subject from January 9, 2008.  So after reading this prediction and you find yourself needing more Michael James, go back and read some of these old posts.)

Super Bowl pick history...

2008 - What?  No pick?  But I did review Game 4 of the 1957 World Series.

2009 - Went 2-1, winning Pittsburgh straight up and the over, losing Pitt minus the points.

2010 - Went 2-0, nailing New Orleans with the points and the under.

2011 - Went 1-1, hitting the over, but losing Pitt catching the points.

2012 - Went 1-2 (boo), hitting the under, but losing New England straight up and laying points.

2103 - Went 1-1, winning Baltimore straight up but whiffing (badly) on the under.

So I am 7-5 in the last five years, after starting a brilliant 4-1.  Maybe that was back when I spent more time watching TV.  To test that theory, I command My-Sugar-Na to put something other than Criminal Minds reruns on again.

This year's Broncos / Seahawks Super Bowl is easy to predict, in sort of a difficult way.  In my opinoin, simply put, If Seattle hangs close or is in the lead in the fourth quarter, they win.  If Denver gets ahead early, they coast and may end up winning a blowout.

The game is being hyped up as the #1 offense (the Broncos, lead by Peyton Manning) versus the #1 defense (the Seahawks, lead by the soft-spoken Richard Sherman).  There is a symmatry to the Broncos as they have the two-headed backfield with Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, and a pair of Thomases (Demaryius and Julius) as targets to go along with a couple of white guys to catch the balls over the middle in Eric Decker and Wes Welker.  But the Seahawks secondary is so darn good, playing bump-and-run coverage, and holding and interfering with the receivers just long enough to not get caught.  

I believe the difference maker in this 1 v 1 showdown is the Seattle pass rush.  Manning has not yet been sacked in two playoff games, but the Seahawks have seven guys that can rush from inside, outside and both sides.  Manning is brilliant at reading defenses and checking into other plays, but the Seattle coaching staff has had two weeks to come up with blitz and coverage disguises that aren't on film.  I believe that if the Seahawks pass rush can rattle Manning, and not allow him to get to the likely-covered-anyway Thomas/Thomas/White Guys, it will be a long afternoon for the Broncos.  If this scenario holds true, the Broncos won't score much, and the Seahawks offense will just hammer with Marshawn Lynch and company.  Look for SEATTLE to win straight up +110 (that means a $10 bet will win your $10 back plus $11).   If I think Seattle is going to win the game, OF COURSE you are also going to take them and the +2 spread.  Duh.

Or, I could be dead wrong... Manning reads every defense, constantly checks down to Moreno or the hot White Guy before getting touched, the Seattle defense gets frustrated into making mistakes, and before we're tired of car commercials Denver is leading 28-3.  In that scenario, there is no way that Seattle has the firepower to catch up.  That's why you should bet with your money and not mine.

As for the over/under, I don't understand why it is so high.  Seattle has the best defense and a mediocre (at best) offense.  Denver has a defense that is pretty good (although they miss Von Miller) to go with their great offense.  But of the four units, only Denver's offense has the ability to score points but as stated above, I don't think they will.  But even if my "I could be dead wrong" insurance plan is accessed, Denver winning by 31 points will still not go over the total. 

As a point of reference, only 2 of Denver's last six games have there been more than 48 points scored, and none of Seattle's last six games have had that many points scored I am very confidnent that the total points will go UNDER 48.5

With picks like that, I just might have to become a sharpie.  I wonder if I could get used to living in Nevada...

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